Sunday, 30 October 2022

How to EXIT a trade the RIGHT way

 

When to EXIT a trade the right way

 

A trading system’s entry is just as important as a trading exit.

You might think, it’s just where you place your take profit – but it’s not.

You see, during market volatility and irrationality of trends, there are other ways to exit a trading position the strategic and right way.

In this short and illustrated piece, I’ll go through the four main ways.

Exit strategy #1: Stop loss or take profit

The most basic way to exit out of a position, is just letting your system take over.

You get in (entry price), you set your stoploss and take profit.

And you let the market price move to one or the other.

Once it touches the stop loss, you’ll exit at a pre-defined level to curb your losses and to stop you from furthering the loss.

If it touches the take profit level, then you’ll also exit your trade at a pred-define reward level. And instead of taking a loss, you end up with a gain.

Easy enough…

Exit strategy #2: Trailing stop loss

The trailing stop loss is a powerful technique where you move your stop loss in the direction of the trend the market is favouring your position.

Let’s say you go long (buy) a market at R150. Your stop loss is at R130 and your take profit is at R200.00.

And the market over time heads to a level of around R180.00.

You want to lock in a good portion of the profits, in case the market turns around and goes against you.

And so, you’ll raise your stop loss to around R170.00 (risk to reward is 1:1).
Now if the market turns against you and hits your second stop loss, you will exit with a profit instead of a loss…

Here’s an example below of where we used the trailing stop loss to bank a minimum profit with a short (sell) trade with Firstrand.

Exit strategy #3: Time stop loss

This exit strategy is not very common amongst traders. But I think it’s super important to include in your strategy.

You see, as traders we are interested in short term gains. We are not investors who want to hold for a long period of time.

That’s because when a trade lines up, and a long period of time elapses there are a few problems that can occur including:

  1. Ongoing interest daily charges

  2. System setup becomes null and void

  3. Investing becomes more of a marriage rather than a date (emotions get involved).

  4. We have opportunity costs to take BETTER trading positions.

And so my rule generally, is to NOT hold a trade longer than 5 – 7 weeks.
After 7 weeks I take a less than expected loss. Or I bank a less than expected gain – depending on where the market is trading at.

When I exit doesn’t matter. It can be the first hour of the morning, anytime in the afternoon or before the market closes.

As long as I get out of the trade, after 5 – 7 weeks – I’ll have more income to look for better opportunities.

Take a look at the yellow circle below, where I exited out of this Vodacom trade. 

Exit strategy #4: Events

This is rare but necessarily.

There are different market events that you may consider exiting out of a position – regardless where the price is and what day it is.

These include the following:

  1. Black Swans (Freak anomaly events that can cause major spikes). 

  2. Non Farm Payrolls (More for Forex and Commodities trading) 

  3. Possible warnings from companies regarding (cooking the books, liquidations, suspensions, Board of executives removal and so on…). 

  4. Huge gaps (when the market jumps way past your stop loss or acts in an irrational way – GET OUT!).

So trading is in a way a bit subjective at times. As much as we want it to be 100% mechanical and technical. We do need to apply these types of events when it comes to exiting our positions.

In some cases, you lock in minimum gains and profits. In other cases, you take small losses. And in worst cases we avoid MASSIVE losses that are unpredictable in the future.

I trust this will open your mind to new opportunities and musts for when you exit out of a position…

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Back To The Future VS Trading

 

The DeLorean time machine is back!

 

The Back to the Future stars Doc Brown (Christopher Lloyd) and Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) reunited and shared the stage at the New York Comicon 2022. 

This is where they reminisced over their iconic roles in the beloved film trilogy.

There were a bunch of mixed emotions but mostly the feeling of nostalgia and childhood memories…

That night, I went straight to Netflix and enjoyed the Back To the Future Marathon…

It was super interesting to watch a movie when at the time, they were trying to predict the future by making a number of predictions about 2015…

They certainly got a few spot ons such as:

  • Smart watches

  • Hover boards

  • Virtual reality headsets (which we use Quest, PlayStation and even HTC)

  • Talking from TV to TV (Instead we use tablets and smart phones, but close enough)

  • Donald Trump like figure as president

They also made a few wrong predictions like:

  • People wearing their pockets inside out

  • Dogs having drones walk them (but we do have drones though)

  • Mechanical car fuel attendants

  • Pizza hydrators

But overall, there is a very big lesson we can learn from this…

 

If scientists, businessmen, producers, directors and actors can’t accurately predict the future, nobody can.

And trading the financial markets are similar to “Back to the Future” movies.
It’s unpredictable and normally plays out differently to what we think…

Thing about the future is… When you know what is going to happen and you act according, the future changes…

Let’s say you know what’s going to happen at a certain point in the future. If you act according to what will happen in the future, then your action will change the future.

So, if the future is so unpredictable, how can anyone ever make money from trading?

Simple.

You don’t need to know the future when you trade

When you take a trade, you should never try to predict where the market will go.

Instead, we should base the future predictions and decisions on one word.
Probability.

If the market is moving up, there is a higher chance it will continue to move up. (It’s going up for a reason).

If the market consolidates in a sideways formation and then the price breaks down, there is a higher chance the price will continue to move down.

This why my one and only MATI Trader System is and will always be timeless and forever profitable. And why it’s one I’m sharing to you and my MATI Traders.

YES! I want to be forever profitable with Timon’s MATI Trader System Programme.

We say, go with the trend rather than against it… Our job is not to predict every turn and bank a profit from every point move.

Our job is to anticipate a change in the market, wait for confirmation and then act accordingly to follow the MORE likely scenario… You might not get it right 30% to 40% of the time, but you can get it right 50% – 70% of the time during certain market environments…

That’s all I do when I do trades and analyses… I base probabilities on where a market is more likely to go at a certain time…

If I’m wrong, I adjust – rather than deny…

This was a short reminder of why you don’t need to predict the markets to make it as a trader.

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Three Types of W Patterns

 

You’ve heard of the Double Bottom or W formation.

It’s one of the popular formations that many technical analysts use. And one I often use to spot trades with the MATI Trader System.

But if you dig deeper, there is a power to it.  

You’ll realise there are certain ways see which ones will perform better than the others…

Today, I want to break down the three types of W Patterns and how you can use it to spot high probability trades.

Let’s start with the basic one.

Type #1: Simple W Pattern

The simple W pattern starts off with the price of any market, making a big rounding bottom.

It then reaches the first high.

Next, the price fails to reach above it and instead it turns back down forming another rounding bottom.

The second rounding bottom pretty much makes the same level low as the first rounding bottom.

Once the price has reached this low, it turns back up and touches the high again…

This high is known as the resistance or a neckline.

This is the level where we’ll then wait for the price to break up and out of the formation.

That’s when we go long and hold until the price reaches the size of the entire Simple W Patterns.

The formula I use to determine the target is the follow:

Price target =

[(Neckline – Low of first rounding bottom) X 2] + Neckline.

When you see this formation there is a GOOD chance the price will break up and out and head to the take profit. I say around a 65% to 70% chance…

Second W Pattern is…

Type #2: Extended W Pattern

The main difference between the Simple W and the Extended W is where the low is for the second rounding bottom.

This is where the price low drops even FURTHER than the previous low.

We say that there was strong selling (supply) power, and the buyers were not strong enough to hold the previous support.

But then, the price turns around and goes to the high of the W Pattern. Once the price breaks up and out of the extended pattern there is a good chance the price will continue up until it hits the price target (as calculated in Type 1).

In my experience, this pattern works out around 50 – 60%. We call it a medium probability trade. And so instead of risking 2% per trade, I like to risk only 1.5%.

Not the best W pattern but it’s still a good setup to take a trade.

Moving on.

Type #3: Short Formed W Pattern

Unlike the Simple and the Extended W Pattern, this one is more ideal!

The Once the price forms the first rounding bottom and comes down, it approaches the low but never touches it.

Instead, it makes an even higher low before turning up and breaking through…

Then we’ll buy and hold the trade until it reaches the target (calculated the same as both W Patterns).

This Short Formed W Pattern is my favourite and has the highest chance of working out.

Why?

Because the sellers were unable to bring the price down to the previous low. And the buyers just took over showing the momentum wanted to stay up.

When you see this pattern it has a good 70% to 75% chance of working out.

NOTE: The reason why the Short Formed W pattern is NOT a Cup and Handle is because the second rounding bottom is more than 50% the height of the first rounding bottom.

Now you know how to use these W Patterns in your trading…

Did you find this article useful? Let me know by clicking here timon@timonandmati.com.

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