Is
trading a form of gambling?
With
hesitance, I would say yes.
However,
I would rather call trading a form of strategic gambling as both
require elements of risk, reward, strategy and decision making.
In the
next two weeks or so, I'm planning to publish a new online FREE
book called “Poker
Vs Trading”.
Who
knows, by the end of it all you may take up professional poker playing
as well as trading…
Let’s
start with the similarities.
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SIMILARITY #1:
We can choose when to
play
(Strategy)
Traders and poker players don’t play every hand that
is dealt to them.
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With
poker, when a hand is dealt,
we can choose to either play the hand, based on how strong it is, or we
can choose to fold and wait for the next hand...
With
trading, we wait for a trading
setup based on the criteria of our strategy i.e. MATI Trader System.
You’ll
then have the exact criteria and money management rules to follow in
order to take a trade or wait for the next trade.
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SIMILARITY #2:
Amateur poker players and traders tend to go the
‘tilt’
(Emotional
roller-coaster)
Emotions are a main driver which leads to traders
losing their cash in their account or poker players losing their
chips very quickly.
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With
poker, you get players who let
their emotions take over where they start betting high with an
irrational frame of mind. These emotions lead them to losing their
chips very quickly. This is when they enter the state of what is called
‘going the tilt’.
With
trading, amateur traders also
tend to act on impulse and play on gut, instinct, fear and greed after
they’ve undergone a losing streak or a winning streak. This often leads
them to:
·
Taking a series of losses.
·
Losing huge portions of their portfolio.
·
Holding onto losing trades longer than they should.
·
Entering a mindset of revenge trading.
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SIMILARITY #3:
We know when to
hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em
(Cut losses
quick)
We have the choice to reduce our losses when it comes to betting a
hand or taking a trade.
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With
poker, if the players start
upping the stakes and you believe you have a weaker hand in the round,
you can choose to ‘fold’ and lose only the cost of playing the ‘ante’.
With
trading, if you’ve taken a trade
and it turns against you, you have a stop loss which will get you out
at the amount of money you were willing to risk of your portfolio…
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SIMILARITY #4:
We know the rake
(Costs involved)
There are always costs associated with each trade we
take or each hand we play, which eats into our winnings.
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With
poker, it’s the portion of the
pot that is taken by the house i.e. the blinds and the antes.
With
trading, it’s the fees charged
by your broker or market maker, in order to take your trade. These fees
can be either the tax, spread and/or the brokerage.
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SIMILARITY #5:
Aggressive trading and betting before the flop
(High
volatility)
There will always be a time of strong market moves and
high betting.
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With
poker, you get times where
players like to bet aggressively and blindly before the flop is
revealed. It’s these times that lead to the amateur poker players
losing their chips very quickly.
With
trading, you get economic data
i.e. Non-Farm-Payrolls, black swan events and Interest Rate decisions
when big investors and traders like to drive the market up or down
before the news even comes out.
NOTE: I ignore both forms of hype as it is can lead to a
catastrophic situation.
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SIMILARITY #6:
We bet and trade based
on the unknown
Every bet and trade we take and play is based on
incomplete information of the future.
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With
poker, we are dealt hands then
bet on decisions based on not knowing what cards our opponents have
and/or what is shown on the river. We then have the options to call,
bet, raise or fold during the process.
With
trading, we take trades based on
probability predictions without knowing where the price will end up at.
This is
due to new information which comes into the market including (demand,
supply, news, economic indicators, micro and macro aspects).
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SIMILARITY #7:
We lose A LOT!
(Losses are
inevitable)
Taking small losses are part of the game with both
poker and trading.
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With
poker, it is important to wait
patiently until you have a hand with a high probability of success.
Some of
the best poker players in the world, fold 90% of the starting hands,
they receive. Some professional poker players can go through weeks and
months without a win.
With
trading, we can lose over 40% to
50% of the time.
In
general, I expect around two losing quarters a year. I know that when
there are better market conditions, it will make up for the small
losses.
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SIMILARITY #8:
You must learn
to earn
(Education is
vital)
You need to understand and gain as much knowledge as you can about
poker and trading before you commit any money.
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With poker, you need to
understand:
- The rules of the game.
- The risk per move.
- The amount of money you
should play per hand.
Once you know these points, you’ll be
able to develop some kind of game plan with each hand you play.
With trading,
you need to understand:
- The MARKET (What, why, where are
how?)NB*
- The METHOD (What system to follow
before taking a trade).
- The MONEY (Risk management rules to
follow with each trade)
- The MIND (The frame of mind you must
develop to succeed)
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SIMILARITY #9:
Perseverance is
the key ingredient to success
You need to take the time and have the determination
to become a successful trader and poker player.
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With poker, you’ll need
to keep at it and apply strict money management rules with each hand
played.
With trading,
you’ll need to know your trading personality, know which trading method
best works you and understand your risk profile…
I’ll leave you with a quote from Vince Lombardi (American football
player, coach, and executive):
“Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice
makes perfect”
Do you have
any similarities between trading and poker?
Let me know and I’ll add it to my new book “Trading Vs Poker”,
and I’ll send it straight to your email address…
You can email me at www.timon@timonandmati.com.
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